Everyone wants to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. After 20 years watching Vancouver's cycles, here's what actually works better than trying to time the market.
I get some version of this question every week: “Should I wait?” Sometimes it’s wrapped in sophisticated language about rate cycles and inventory forecasts. Sometimes it’s just a gut feeling that prices might drop next quarter. After 20 years of helping people buy and sell homes in Vancouver, I have a blunt answer that most people don’t want to hear.
Market timing, for 95% of buyers, is a waste of mental energy. Not because markets don’t have cycles—they obviously do. But because the people asking the question are almost never in a position to act on the answer even if they get it right. And getting it right is much harder than the YouTube commentators make it look.
That said, there are a few situations where timing genuinely matters. Let me walk through the data, the patterns, and the framework I actually use with my clients.
The Uncomfortable Truth About Market Timing
Between 2015 and 2024, I watched dozens of buyers sit on the sidelines waiting for a correction. Some of them are still waiting. The ones who bought in 2017 and panicked during the 2018 dip? Their properties are worth 30-40% more today. The ones who waited for “the crash” in 2020? They missed one of the fastest run-ups in Vancouver history.
Here’s what the data tells us about the Greater Vancouver market over the past decade:
- Average annual price appreciation (2014-2024): ~5.8% for detached, ~4.2% for condos
- Number of years with negative annual returns: 2 (2018-2019 correction, brief 2022 dip)
- Duration of those dips: 12-18 months before recovery
Even professional fund managers, with teams of analysts and billions in resources, fail to consistently time equity markets. Real estate is less liquid, has higher transaction costs, and moves on information that’s weeks or months old by the time you see it in MLS data. If Goldman Sachs can’t time markets reliably, your cousin’s theory about interest rates probably isn’t going to cut it either.
Vancouver’s Seasonal Patterns: What the Numbers Actually Show
Vancouver does have predictable seasonal rhythms. These are real, and they’re worth understanding—but the magnitude might surprise you.
I pulled ten years of Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) data to build this picture:
| Month | Avg. Sales Volume (Relative) | Price Trend vs. Annual Average | Competition Level | Buyer Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | Low (60-65% of peak) | -2% to -4% below annual avg | Low | Strong |
| February | Building (70-75%) | -1% to -3% | Moderate | Moderate |
| March | High (85-95%) | At or above average | High | Weak |
| April | Peak (95-100%) | +2% to +4% above annual avg | Very High | Very Weak |
| May | Peak (100%) | +2% to +5% | Peak competition | Weakest |
| June | Easing (85-90%) | +1% to +3% | High | Weak |
| July | Moderate (70-80%) | Stable to +1% | Moderate | Moderate |
| August | Low (60-70%) | Stable to -1% | Low | Moderate-Strong |
| September | Building (75-85%) | Stable | Moderate | Moderate |
| October | Moderate (80-90%) | Stable to +1% | Moderate-High | Moderate |
| November | Declining (65-75%) | -1% to -2% | Low | Strong |
| December | Lowest (50-60%) | -2% to -5% | Very Low | Strongest |
The spread between the best and worst months is typically 5-8% on comparable properties. That’s real money on a $1.2M purchase—potentially $60,000-$96,000. But there’s a catch.
Why Seasonal Discounts Are Smaller Than They Appear
That December “discount” comes with strings. Inventory is at its thinnest. You’re choosing from whatever nobody bought during the fall market. Sellers who list in December are often motivated—divorces, job relocations, estate sales—so you might get a better price, but the selection is severely limited.
I’ve seen buyers save $40,000 buying in January only to compromise on the neighbourhood or floor plan they actually wanted. That kind of compromise costs far more over a 10-year hold than the purchase price difference.
The spring rush is expensive for a reason. New listings flood the market in March and April. More inventory means more choice. You pay a premium for that choice, but you’re also more likely to find the specific property that fits your life.
When Timing Actually Matters
I said 95% of buyers shouldn’t bother with timing. Here’s what separates the other 5%.
Interest Rate Cycles
This is the one area where timing can make a material difference. A 1% change in your mortgage rate on a $800,000 mortgage changes your monthly payment by roughly $450. Over a 5-year term, that’s $27,000.
The Bank of Canada’s rate decisions are more predictable than property prices. When the bank signals a cutting cycle (as they did through 2024-2025), buyers who moved early locked in before the demand surge that inevitably follows lower rates. By the time rates actually drop enough for everyone to notice, competition has already driven prices up, often by more than the rate savings.
If you’re watching rates, watch the forward guidance—not the actual announcements. The market prices in rate changes 3-6 months before they happen.
Policy Changes
Bill 44 (multiplex zoning) is reshaping Vancouver’s housing stock in ways we haven’t seen since the leaky condo crisis changed how we think about building envelopes. Properties on large lots in RS-zoned areas have a different value proposition now than they did three years ago.
When policy changes create new property types or shift allowable density, there’s usually a 12-24 month window before the market fully prices in the change. We saw this with laneway house regulations, with the Empty Homes Tax, and we’re seeing it now with multiplex conversions. If you understand the policy before the market does, you have genuine edge. That’s not timing—that’s information advantage, and it’s the only reliable form of market advantage I’ve seen in two decades.
Forced Selling Events
Market-wide stress events (2008, early 2020) create real buying opportunities. But they’re impossible to predict, terrifying to act on when they happen, and usually short-lived in Vancouver. If you had $200,000 in cash and nerves of steel in April 2020, you could have found deals. Most people didn’t, because their own job security felt uncertain at the same time.
The Cost of Waiting: Math That Market Timers Ignore
Let’s say you’re currently renting for $2,800/month and considering buying a $900,000 condo. You decide to wait one year for a 5% price drop. Here’s the math that most people skip:
12 months of rent paid while waiting: $33,600
If you’re right and prices drop 5%: You save $45,000 on the purchase price. Net benefit: $11,400. Not bad.
If you’re wrong and prices rise 3%: You pay $27,000 more. Plus the $33,600 in rent. Net cost: $60,600.
If prices stay flat: You saved nothing on the price. You paid $33,600 in rent. You’re 12 months further from paying off a mortgage. Net cost: ~$40,000+ when you factor in equity you would have been building.
The asymmetry is stark. You need to be right by a significant margin just to break even on the cost of waiting. And that’s before we factor in the emotional cost of another year of uncertainty, another year of browsing MLS listings at 11pm wondering if you should have pulled the trigger.
What Actually Matters More Than Timing
After helping over 500 families buy in Vancouver, I can tell you the buyers who build real wealth over 10-15 years share a few common traits—and none of them involve market timing.
Buy Within Your Means (Not at Your Maximum)
The bank will approve you for a number that will make your eyes water. Don’t use all of it. I tell every client: your comfortable monthly payment should survive a 2% rate increase at renewal without changing how you live. If that means buying a 2-bedroom instead of a 3-bedroom, buy the 2-bedroom. The stress-free ownership experience is worth more than the extra square footage.
Get the Neighbourhood Right
A mediocre property in a strong neighbourhood will outperform a great property in a weak one. Every time. In Vancouver, that means paying attention to transit plans (the Broadway Subway extension is repricing everything along the corridor), school catchments, and walkability scores. These fundamentals compound over time in ways that purchase timing never will.
For a deeper look at neighbourhood selection, read our 2026 buyer’s guide or our breakdown of tips and programs for first-time buyers.
Match Property Type to Your 5-Year Plan
Buying a 600 sq ft condo when you’re planning to have two kids in three years is a timing mistake that has nothing to do with market cycles. Think about what your life looks like in 5 years. Buy for that life, not for this month’s interest rate.
2026-Specific Considerations
The current market has its own set of factors that are worth understanding, even if you’re not trying to “time” anything.
Rate Environment
The Bank of Canada’s cutting cycle has brought rates down from their 2023 peaks, with the overnight rate settling in the low-to-mid 3% range. Fixed 5-year rates are hovering around 4.25-4.75%. This is lower than the panic of 2023, but not the sub-3% environment we had in 2020-2021. Don’t expect a return to those levels—they were an anomaly driven by a global pandemic, not the norm.
Inventory and New Supply
Multiplex construction is slowly adding new housing types to Vancouver’s market. The first wave of Bill 44 projects is completing now, and these 3-4 unit buildings are creating a “missing middle” price point between condos and detached homes. Expect this supply to increase through 2026 and 2027. If you’re flexible on property type, more options are coming.
Immigration and Demand
Federal immigration targets have been adjusted downward for 2025-2026 compared to peak levels, but Vancouver remains one of Canada’s top destination cities. Population growth continues to put a floor under demand, particularly for condos and townhouses near transit. Anyone betting on a demand collapse is betting against decades of consistent trend data.
Pre-Sale Market Softness
The pre-sale condo market has softened, with some developers offering incentives (assignment fee waivers, deposit structures, upgrades) that weren’t available 18 months ago. If you’re considering new construction, this is a window worth exploring—but do your homework on the developer’s track record and completion timelines.
A Realistic Framework for Making Your Decision
Instead of asking “Is now a good time to buy?”, ask yourself these five questions:
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Can I hold this property for at least 5 years? If yes, short-term market movements become noise. Vancouver has never had a 5-year period with negative returns on residential real estate.
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Can I afford the payments if rates go up 1.5% at renewal? If yes, you’re protected against the most likely stress scenario.
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Is my job and income stable for the next 2-3 years? If you’re six months into a new career or expecting a major life change, renting gives you flexibility that ownership doesn’t.
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Have I found a property I actually want to live in? Buying something you hate because the price was right is how you end up selling in 3 years and losing money to transaction costs.
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Is my down payment ready without draining my emergency fund? You need at least 3 months of expenses after closing. If buying leaves you with zero savings, you’re not ready regardless of market conditions.
If you answered yes to all five, the market’s direction over the next 6-12 months is the least important variable in your decision. Buy something good. Hold it. Let time do the work.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the best month to buy a house in Vancouver?
December through February typically offers the least competition and the most negotiating room. REBGV data shows sale-to-list price ratios drop to 96-98% in winter versus 100-103% during spring peaks. But inventory is thin, so your best month depends on when the right property hits the market—not a calendar strategy.
Should I wait for interest rates to drop more before buying in 2026?
Probably not. Rate cuts get priced into the market before they’re announced. By the time the Bank of Canada actually cuts, buyer demand has already increased and pushed prices up. The net effect on affordability is often a wash. If you qualify today at current rates and find the right property, waiting for a slightly lower rate while competing against a wave of other buyers who had the same idea rarely works out.
Is Vancouver real estate overpriced?
By many traditional metrics—price-to-income, price-to-rent—yes, Vancouver has been “overpriced” for 25 years. People who waited for a correction to historical norms missed one of the strongest real estate markets in North America. Vancouver’s pricing reflects geographic constraints (mountains, ocean, agricultural land reserve), immigration demand, and foreign capital flows that don’t show up in simple affordability ratios. It can be both expensive by historical standards and still appreciate over time.
How much can I save by buying in the off-season?
Based on REBGV data from 2015-2024, the average seasonal discount in December-January versus April-May is 3-7% on comparable properties. On a $1M home, that’s $30,000-$70,000. But the savings come with trade-offs: fewer listings, holiday-period stress, and a smaller pool of motivated sellers. Use our mortgage calculator to see how seasonal price differences affect your monthly payments.
Stop Trying to Be Clever. Be Ready Instead.
The best real estate investors I know—the ones who’ve built serious wealth in Vancouver over decades—share a common trait. They don’t try to time the market. They buy properties that make sense at the time of purchase, hold them through the inevitable dips, and let the long-term trajectory do the heavy lifting.
Your energy is better spent finding the right property in the right neighbourhood at a price you can comfortably afford than refreshing the Bank of Canada website every six weeks hoping for a rate cut.
Talk to Greyden Douglas
If you’re wrestling with the “buy now or wait” question, I’m happy to walk through the numbers specific to your situation. No pressure, no sales pitch—just 20 years of pattern recognition applied to your actual circumstances.
Call or text Greyden Douglas directly at (604) 218-2289 or book a call. You can also reach us through our contact page.
