October 2025 saw Metro Vancouver sales drop 14.3% year-over-year while inventory climbed to levels we haven't seen in years. Here's what the fall numbers tell us about where the market is heading.
Every October, I pay close attention to the numbers. Fall is when the Vancouver market tells you the truth. Spring is emotional — cherry blossoms, open houses, bidding wars. Fall strips all that away. You get a clear picture of where supply and demand actually stand before the year winds down.
October 2025 told a very specific story: buyers are in control, and they know it.
The Headline: 2,255 Sales, Down 14.3%
Greater Vancouver Realtors reported 2,255 residential sales across Metro Vancouver in October 2025. That is a 14.3% drop compared to October 2024, and it was one of the slowest Octobers I can remember in my 20 years of selling on the west side.
To be clear, this was not a surprise. The trend had been building all year. But the October data confirmed what I was already seeing at street level: listings sitting longer, price reductions becoming routine, and buyers in no rush to commit.
Sales by Property Type
The decline was not evenly distributed. Here is where each segment landed:
| Property Type | October 2025 Sales | Year-over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| Detached | 693 | -4.3% |
| Condos | 1,071 | -23.1% |
| Townhouses | 477 | -4.8% |
| All residential | 2,255 | -14.3% |
Source: Greater Vancouver Realtors, October 2025 Monthly Summary
That condo number stands out. A 23.1% drop in condo sales is not a soft patch. It is a segment in genuine distress. I will get into why in a moment.
Prices: Down Across the Board
The MLS Home Price Index benchmark for October 2025 showed declines in every property type:
| Property Type | Benchmark Price (Oct 2025) | Year-over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| Composite (all residential) | $1,577,980 | -3.4% |
| Detached | $2,670,235 | -4.3% |
| Townhouse | $1,486,297 | -3.8% |
| Apartment (condo) | $1,001,687 | -5.1% |
Source: Greater Vancouver Realtors, October 2025 Monthly Summary
A 5.1% drop on a million-dollar condo works out to roughly $51,000. That is real money. For a buyer putting 20% down, that is about $41,000 less mortgage principal, which translates to approximately $230 less per month.
Based on approximately 4.5% rate, 25-year amortization. For illustration only; verify with your mortgage broker.
The Condo Problem
I want to spend a moment on condos because the October numbers crystallized something I had been watching for months.
A 23.1% year-over-year sales decline is the worst of any segment by a wide margin. Detached and townhouse sales fell in the low single digits. Condos fell off a cliff.
Several forces converged. Investor demand dried up because carrying costs made the math impossible at prevailing rents. End-user buyers in the condo price range — typically first-time buyers — were the most sensitive to rate uncertainty and affordability stress. And new supply kept arriving from presale completions, adding to already elevated inventory.
At the same time, the condo benchmark was down 5.1%, the steepest price decline of any property type. When sales volume and prices both drop sharply, you are looking at a segment where sellers have very little leverage.
If you are a buyer shopping for a condo right now, especially in the resale market, you should know that many sellers have been sitting for 60 to 90 days. They are motivated. This is the kind of market where a well-prepared offer with subjects can get accepted at a meaningful discount to list price.
Townhouses: The Quiet Winner
On the other end of the spectrum, townhouses showed the most resilience. Sales were down only 4.8%, the price decline was a comparatively modest 3.8%, and the sales-to-active listings ratio sat at 17.6% — the highest of any property type and right at the threshold of a seller’s market.
Why? Townhouses occupy a sweet spot in Vancouver. They offer more space than condos, more land, and lower maintenance than detached homes. For families outgrowing a two-bedroom apartment but unable to afford a detached house, a townhouse is the logical step. Demand for that product type held up better because the need is more fundamental.
If you are looking at townhouses, know that you have less negotiating room than you do with condos, but the value proposition is strong.
Inventory Keeps Climbing
Active listings in October 2025 reached 16,393 units, a 13.2% increase over the same month the prior year. The sales-to-active listings ratio sat at 14.2%, which puts the overall market firmly in balanced territory tilting toward buyers.
For context, GVR considers a ratio below 12% to be a buyer’s market and above 20% to be a seller’s market. At 14.2%, we were sitting closer to the buyer’s side of balanced than the seller’s side. And that is the aggregate number. In many individual submarkets, the ratio was lower.
More inventory means more choice. More choice means less urgency. Less urgency means you can take your time, write subjects into offers, and negotiate meaningfully on price. I have been telling clients this for months, and October’s data simply confirms it.
Geography Matters: A Tale of Two Markets
One of the most striking aspects of the fall 2025 data is how much geographic variation existed across the region.
North Vancouver benchmarks were actually up 0.7% year-over-year. Strong demand for detached homes with mountain proximity kept that submarket tighter than the rest of the region.
Meanwhile, South Surrey and White Rock dropped 8.1%. Vancouver East fell 7.5%. New Westminster was down 7.6%. These are not small differences.
What explains it? In my experience, the areas holding up best have constrained supply and persistent demand from owner-occupants who genuinely want to be there. North Vancouver has limited buildable land and a lifestyle appeal that keeps drawing families. South Surrey, by contrast, saw significant new construction over the past five years, adding supply in a market that was already slowing.
The lesson: do not rely on regional averages when making a purchase decision. The market in Kitsilano is not the same as the market in New Westminster. Talk to someone who knows the specific neighbourhood you are targeting.
Rate Cuts Were Not Enough
By October 2025, the Bank of Canada had cut its overnight rate four times that year. Lower borrowing costs were supposed to pull sidelined buyers back into the market. They did not, at least not in sufficient numbers.
I think the disconnect is straightforward: rate cuts help with affordability on paper, but they do not address the psychology of a falling market. When buyers see prices dropping month after month, many decide to wait, reasoning they can get a better deal later. That wait-and-see behaviour suppresses demand even as borrowing becomes cheaper.
It is a rational calculation in the short term. Over the medium term, it tends to backfire. Markets do not send you a text message when they bottom out. By the time the data confirms a floor, the best inventory has often been picked over and competition has returned.
What This Means Looking Into 2026
Sitting here in February 2026, I can connect the fall 2025 data to what I am seeing now. The conditions that defined October — elevated inventory, soft condo demand, resilient townhouses, price declines in the 3-5% range — carried through into the winter and set the stage for what I believe is a genuine buyer’s market heading into spring 2026.
A few things I expect to play out over the coming months:
Condo prices will face continued pressure. The investor exodus is not reversing anytime soon, and new completions keep adding supply. End-user buyers will find deals, but it will take time for the overhang to clear.
Detached and townhouse prices will stabilize before condos. The fall data already showed these segments declining less. I expect them to find a floor first, particularly in desirable west side neighbourhoods with limited turnover.
Inventory will stay elevated through spring. Sellers who held off listing in the fall will come to market in March and April. Combined with the existing stock, buyers should have excellent selection.
Rate stability will gradually bring buyers back. The Bank of Canada has signalled a cautious hold. Predictable borrowing costs are a prerequisite for confidence, and confidence is what ultimately gets people off the sidelines.
Key Takeaways
- Metro Vancouver sales fell 14.3% year-over-year in October 2025, with condos leading the decline at -23.1%
- The composite benchmark dropped 3.4% to $1,577,980, with condos down the most at -5.1% and townhouses the most resilient at -3.8%
- Active listings climbed 13.2% to 16,393, pushing the sales-to-active ratio to 14.2% — buyer-friendly territory
- Geographic variation was significant: North Vancouver benchmarks were up 0.7% while South Surrey/White Rock dropped 8.1%
- Four Bank of Canada rate cuts through October were not enough to reignite demand, with buyer psychology suppressing sales despite cheaper borrowing
Frequently Asked Questions
How bad was the Vancouver condo market in fall 2025?
Condos were the weakest segment by a clear margin. October 2025 saw a 23.1% year-over-year drop in condo sales across Metro Vancouver, compared to just 4.3% for detached homes and 4.8% for townhouses. The condo benchmark price fell 5.1%, the steepest decline of any property type. The combination of investor retreat, new supply from completions, and first-time buyer hesitation created significant downward pressure on the condo market specifically.
Were any Vancouver areas actually seeing price increases in fall 2025?
Yes. North Vancouver benchmarks were up 0.7% year-over-year in October 2025, bucking the regional trend. Limited buildable land and strong demand from owner-occupants kept that submarket tighter than the regional average. This is why neighbourhood-level analysis matters more than broad regional numbers.
Did Bank of Canada rate cuts help the Vancouver market in 2025?
Not as much as expected. Despite four rate cuts through October, Metro Vancouver sales still fell 14.3% year-over-year. The disconnect was largely psychological: buyers saw prices falling and chose to wait, even as borrowing became cheaper. This is a common pattern in real estate corrections — rate cuts improve affordability, but they cannot override the instinct to wait for a better deal.
Is 2026 a good time to buy in Vancouver based on fall 2025 trends?
I believe so, particularly for end-user buyers who plan to hold for five years or more. The conditions that emerged in fall 2025 — high inventory, soft prices, motivated sellers — have carried into 2026. The current buyer’s market offers selection and negotiating power that will not last indefinitely. As rates stabilize and sidelined buyers return, the window will narrow.
Sources
- Greater Vancouver Realtors - October 2025 Monthly Summary
- Bank of Canada - 2025 Interest Rate Decisions
Data sourced February 2026. Market conditions change frequently. Verify current figures before making financial decisions.
Next Steps: Work with Rain City Properties
If you have been watching the market from the sidelines, the fall 2025 data tells a clear story: buyers have leverage, inventory is high, and prices have pulled back meaningfully from their peaks. The question is whether you act on it before conditions tighten.
I work with buyers and sellers across Metro Vancouver’s west side. If you want to understand what your budget buys in today’s market, or you need a straight answer on whether now is the right time for your specific situation, I am happy to talk it through.
Contact Greyden Douglas directly at (604) 218-2289 or book a call to discuss your Vancouver real estate goals.
